Q & A: The Reformation

If you agree with the first possible answer, read the next question. If you agree with the second possible answer, click the link.

  • Are Christians called to unity? Yes or No
  • Do denominational splits violate this command? Yes or No
  • Is there a valid reason to violate God’s command to unity? Yes or No
  • Do you know what the given reason for the Reformation was? Yes or No
  • Was the given reason(s) of the Reformation a valid reason to violate God’s command to unity? Yes or No
  • Why?

Fin.


That christians are called to unity is a widely-accepted premise. Verses such as Ephesians 4:4–6 and John 17:20-23 among others support this claim. What is often contended is what “unity” means, and to what extent we must be “one body.”

That Christians are not called to unity at all is a fringe Christian position, with no substantial defenses that I know of. Please inform me if I am missing something here.

That denominational splits do not violate the call to Christian unity is often defended by something like “We may disagree on the details, but we’re all still Christians, and agree on the essentials.” However, many Protestants do not consider Catholics to be Christians. Or Mormons. But both Catholics and Mormons consider themselves to be Christians. So the defense sort of begs the question by defining denominational splits that are okay to be okay, and splits that are bad to be bad. Tautologies are not interesting, so I maintain that until someone can generate a defense of the proposition that the splits between *all* denominations calling themselves “Christian” are not a violation of the call to Christian unity; these splits are in fact a violation.

Then there was no valid reason for the Reformers to split from the Catholic church, implying that all Reformers and their ideological descendants should return to their parent denomination.

Should you know the reason, if you are of a Reformation descended denomination? Yes or No

There were many given reasons for the split. However, a fundamental reason was the issue of authority. Reformers held to sola scriptura, or the belief that the Bible alone is the sole authority for all matters of faith and practice. Return to questions.

You are defending ignorance, which is a non-trivial burden of proof. People usually assume that ignorance is not good.

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Bollinger Band Squeeze

We are living in the golden age of Bollinger Band Squeeze.

A Bollinger Band is a visual representation of Standard Deviation. The outer solid blue lines in the chart below represent the 2 standard deviation location, as compared to the middle line, which is a moving average.

Screen Shot 2017-04-25 at 11.20.07 AM

A Bollinger Band Squeeze is when the distance from top to bottom of the blue lines is relatively small. This indicates “building pressure” and (often) results in an explosive movement outside of the lines.

As you can see this has consistently been the case in the main indexes for most of the last year. This has not always such a good indicator in the past, and by itself it does not tell you when exactly the next big move is going to happen, but in conjunction with a reasonable OTM-option buying strategy, it should have return-enhancing potential.

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What is best in life?

So much of the manosphere, the reactosphere, and all the edgy, right-wing parts of the internet is focused on the many flaws in modern society. For a natural cynic like myself this makes it easy to lose sight of the Good, True, and Beautiful things that matter. I firmly believe that focusing on the good things we may gain is more valuable than dwelling on what was lost. Hope is a virtue, and Despair a sin.

The Good, True, and Beautiful things of life:

  1. The Triune God
  2. His Creation
  3. The Virtues
    1. Humility
    2. Kindness
    3. Patience
    4. Diligence
    5. Charity
    6. Temperance
    7. Chastity
  4. Marriage
  5. Order
  6. Dominion

I will update this list as I write my own summaries of each good thing.

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NFLX

Originally Written:Mon, Aug 4, 2014 at 1:34 PM.

Note that this is not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Risk your money at your own peril.

Summary: NFLX is in a secondary downtrend, that’s likely to continue.

On this chart, you can see that Netflix has started a typical secondary reaction downtrend, within the context of a long-term bull market. Some interesting things pointing to a continuation of this downtrend are as follows.

  1. The trend is always more likely to continue than reverse
  2. No large support area for a while
  3. Both MACD lines have crossed the signal line. (bearish signal)
  4. The Bollinger Bands are pretty tight. (this can signal an upcoming large move in either direction)
  5. Price has crossed through the 50-day moving average.

Now, from a tactical point of view, it’s also an interesting place, as the risk/reward ratio is pretty good if you consider that price has a reasonable chance of falling to 380, and a short stop could be placed at 435ish pretty safely. Meh. Might be interesting.

nflx 04-08-2014

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SPY

Originally written: Mon, Jul 28, 2014 at 9:17 AM

Note that this is not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Risk your money at your own peril.

Summary: SPY is forming a Wedge (which is a bearish signal)

SPY (An S&P 500 tracking ETF) has been rising pretty steadily for more than 5 years now. That’s a big Bull market. As such, I’ve been getting a little nervous about a correction down. But, being a technician, I assume that the trend will continue until it signals conclusively that it is done. At this moment, it has not conclusively signaled, but it is giving a bit of a warning–it has formed a Wedge pattern.

The Wedge: (quoted from Technical Analysis of Stock Trends)

  • “a gradual petering out of investment interest. Prices advance, but each new wave is feebler than the last. Finally demand fails entirely and the trend reverses.”
  • “the Wedge sets a sort of limit on the advance. Its converging boundary lines focus on a point near where the advance will halt”
  • “It can develop either as a sort of topping out pattern of a previously existing uptrend, or …”
  • “It normally takes more than 3 weeks to complete.”
  • “Prices almost always fluctuate within the Wedge’s confines for at least two-thirds of the distance from the base (beginning of convergence) to the apex; …”
  • “Once prices break out … downside, they usually waste little time before declining in earnest. … ordinarily retraces all of the ground gained withing the Wedge itself, sometimes more.”
  • “Trading volume tends to diminish”

Our Situation:
Our Wedge (marked by the upper Blue line and the Red line) meets all the above criteria. With that in mind, we can expect the Wedge to continue up a little while longer (a week or two), then quickly drop down to at least the first support area (marked by my pink rectangles) and probably also to the second support area. Keep in mind that all of these predictions are statements of probability–it is most likely to occurs as described, but variation is possible. It could breakout downside today. It could breakout a month from now (though that seems very unlikely). It could even breakout upside (though that is the lowest probability outcome–false Wedges are rare).

What to Do:
First, if you don’t own SPY (or a correlated issue like DIA or VOO), don’t buy now. The situation is too precarious. If you do own such an issue (like me) I recommend a fairly close stop, in order that you are tripped out at the beginning of the breakout, but not before. The blue trendline give a fair guide of where the stop should be, with a little lower for some leeway.

At the first conclusive sign of breakout, don’t be afraid to go short for a bit, as those pink boxes provide pretty good price targets.

This market had been confusing me for a while, but reading my old textbook and looking at the chart cleared it up for me.

SPY 2y 28-07-2014

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BBRY

Originally Written: Sat, Jul 26, 2014 at 10:06 AM

Note that this is not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Risk your money at your own peril.

Summary: BBRY is going up.

Early this month BBRY confirmed a new Bull Market. It had been falling steadily for quite a while before that. Then the Apple/IBM deal messed everything up, and knocked the price down something painful. Still, overall, it was just a typical secondary reaction. Now, this stock looks promising for a buy for a few reasons.

  1. The major trend is less than a year old. (young trends are more likely to continue than old trends)
  2. The price is near a strong support/resistance level. (such levels are where secondary trends usually start/end)
  3. We have an inside daily candle setup
A warning: It is possible that this secondary reaction could continue down to near $8.50, where another strong support level is. This would also make sense within the major trendline, as that price would be much closer to that strong uptrend.
What to do: There are a few ways you could handle this.
  1. I placed a buy stop order at 10.41, if the price reaches this level, I will buy. the point being that if the price breaks out of the upper boundary of the inside candle, we can be fairly certain that the new secondary uptrend has begun. If this order gets executed, I’ll put a stop below the bottom of the inside candle, at 10.09.
  2. You could just buy the shares. If you do that, I’d put a stop at either 10.09 or 9.69. If you do this, you’re basically gambling that the secondary uptrend is going to start right now, and you’re getting paid 10.41 – 10.27 = 0.14 (stop price minus current market price) to make the gamble. It’s not a very good gamble.
  3. You could just wait and see. Of course, this is basically the manual version of #1. if you do this, consider buying above 10.44 or 10.41.
  4. You could also short the stock if it falls below 10.09 or 9.69 (depending on how sure you want to be) in the hopes that it gets down to around 8.50 ish. This may seem counter to most of what I have said, but it’s really not, because even if the stock continues it’s secondary reaction down to $8.50, in the long term will rise through $11.50.
Conclusion: BBRY is in a new Bull market. It has been in a secondary reaction (down) which could continue down to $8.50 (less likely) or turn and rise past $11.50 (more likely). The best course of action is to let the upcoming price movement tell you which it will be. In the long term, it is headed up, we’re just not sure about the coming week or two.
Keep in mind, that entering a trade is only half the battle. Or even less. You need to also know how to exit. But I’m tired now, so we can discuss that later if you want.
BBRY 1y 07-25-2014
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AMZN

Originally Written: Fri, Jul 25, 2014 at 7:02 PM.

Note that this is not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Risk your money at your own peril.

Today, amazon posted some terrible earnings. Well, really it was their costs that were the issue, as this guy details fairly well. The point is, amazon’s stock dropped ~10% in a day. Yikes!
 
All of that is interesting and all, but I don’t trade stock fundamentals (which earnings reports are), I do technical analysis. So, I got out my marker and looked at the chart (attached).
 
What’s interesting about the technicals, is that they clearly forecast Amazon’s stock drop, despite the fact that no one but insiders knew that amazon was going to post terrible earnings. Now, obviously technical analysis wouldn’t have told you that you’d make 10% on July 25th if you shorted, but in late March, the price action indicated a pretty clear bear market had begun. And if you’ll notice, the recent price gains through March, June, and July are all standard fare secondary reaction trends, with the added bonus of coming to a halt pretty near a semi-clear resistance area.
 
And that’s not all! Bear markets generally last for at least a year, sometimes up to 3 years, and in order for this bear market to continue (which it should), amazon has at minimum, another $25 to drop. Most likely, it will drop more than that, but unfortunately I know of no way to predict the future exactly.
 
Take homes:
– Price movement discounts unforeseen ‘act of god’ and other BAD NEWS
– Amazon *may* be worth shorting if you are into that kind of thing.
 
AMZN 3y 07-25-2014
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